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Will Shanghai overtake Hong Kong? That is a question people in Hong Kong ask, but few in Shanghai do. And that suggests the answer. Shanghai is China's premier city, at least in its own estimation. It knows where it is headed and is confident it will get there. There is little hand-wringing up there. One can make a MCQ #1 pessimistic plausible sad case that Hong Kong will retain its pre-eminence over the northern upstart. By almost any measure, the lead of the Special Administrative Region is MCQ #2 declining overwhelming weak , and, in many areas, its margin is widening. When viewed objectively, Shanghai is actually moving backwards in a number of areas.

Talk to the people who live in these two cities, however, and it would seem that their positions were reversed. Perhaps more than anything else, that is the essential difference between Hong Kong and Shanghai these days. And if the Shanghainese overtake their Cantonese cousins soon, it will be because they always knew they would.

Shanghai has just built one of the world's best museums of Chinese art even though it was short of everything. Nothing proved a stumbling block, however. It is ironic that, in large measure, Hong Kong made this MCQ #3 ordinary small stunning achievement possible. Walk around the galleries and it is evident that Hong Kong's finest paid for much of this museum and supplied a good portion of its collection. Now ask the obvious question: "Why didn't Hong Kong build its own museum?" In Hong Kong these days there is simply a failure of imagination.

Shanghai's vision is grand these days. Hong Kong's is modest. Shanghai has over-extended itself in its own MCQ #4 inimitable comparable common style, building the equivalent of Hong Kong's total office space within five years during this decade. Follies maybe, but there is no lack of ambition.

Hong Kong builds tall buildings; Shanghai is building the world's tallest (at 460 metres). And that is after completing what is now number three on that list. On the drawing boards now is a 456-metre building in Kowloon. If someone in Hong Kong is going to build that high, what can account for a failure to add another five metres and claim the title as the world's tallest?

Hong Kong boasts Chek Lap Kok among its grand projects. But that was started by an outgoing colonial administration that appeared MCQ #5 intent accidentally on purpose on spending Hong Kong's reserves before handing them over to the new SAR. That doesn't rate high on the vision scale. Besides, if the airport was the result of vision, the visionaries are no longer part of the Hong Kong landscape.

In many ways, Hong Kong is the city that has got it right on almost every score. Shanghai has not. But it is difficult not to admire what Shanghai is trying to do and wonder whether Hong Kong has lost its way.

Consider Hong Kong's right of abode debacle. The Tung administration estimated 1.67 million immigrants would flood in if nothing was done. The MCQ #6 resulting ending starting public support for seeking Beijing's help in sealing the border reveals that Hong Kong, mostly composed of immigrants or their descendants, now wants to shut its doors.

The people here evidently see only a future of limited growth. Societies decline when their people lose faith in themselves. Hong Kong people may be on the verge of doing so.

Worse, Hong Kong is also beginning the process of walling itself off from the rest of the world. Here, the quality of teaching English is declining dramatically. In Shanghai studying English is popular, in part because it is seen as a way to learn about, and from, an MCQ #7 unchanging ever-changing slow-changing (and constantly progressing) world.

Hong Kong is starting to emulate a country that, in most respects, is not as far advanced as itself. Following mainland ways may be politically MCQ #8 unwise expedient unsuitable in post-handover Hong Kong, but one has to ask if this is the right course.

Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa has, to his credit, recognised that Hong Kong must re-invent itself to continue to progress. Nonetheless, implementation of cyber-SAR, his version of the future, looks less than MCQ #9 spirited dull fresh .

When Shanghai gets a vision, implementation is no problem. If, for example, Shanghai caught the cyber fever when Mr Tung did, that city would, by now, have dug the foundations for a cyberport, begun moving its science universities next door, mandated computer training for seven-year-olds, and announced the wiring of classrooms for terminals. Fortunately for Hong Kong's aspirations, Shanghai is not yet in that race.

Shanghai's exuberance is, perhaps, a reflection of the personality of its mayor, Xu Kuangdi (or, maybe, it is the other way around). In any event, this MCQ #10 charismatic terrible unattractive and well-liked Shanghai personality sets the optimistic tone for that city. He smiles, he laughs, he is everywhere. Hong Kong's more MCQ #11 extreme medium sober and cautious attitude these days is reflected in its Chief Executive.

There is no doubt that Shanghai is overdoing it. Excess is an art form there. A few years ago Shanghainese loved to boast that 25 per cent of the world's construction cranes were at work in their city. That doesn't sound quite so good these days with vacancy rates approaching the 70 per cent mark.

All that space, both residential and commercial, makes Shanghai look cheap in comparison. Hong Kong, far too expensive for what it offers, should watch out. Shanghai may just land on its feet.

Many say that Hong Kong is the victim of the Asian financial crisis. That is true, but the remark sounds more like an excuse than an explanation. Shanghai is also buffeted by forces beyond its control as its development is stunted by Beijing's political constranits. For example, Shanghai would be a MCQ #12 slow-moving vibrant quiet financial centre by now if it were not for the mainland's restrictions against capital market and lending activities.

In the meantime, Hong Kong, which has achieved so much, stagnates. Perhaps past glory is getting in the way of future success.

It was about three decades ago that Hong Kong began to make the transition from manufacturing base to financial centre. It should now be able to make the leap to technology metropolis. It can succeed, however, only if it believes it can.

Of course, only time will tell whether Hong Kong and Shanghai will ultimately succeed. But today only one of these great cities is trying.